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The
economy
Taxation
and social security
International
affairs
Health
Gun
control
Environment
Education
Capital
punishment
Character
The
economy
With
steady growth throughout the Clinton era and unemployment
currently hovering at around five per cent, the state of
America's economy is a definite vote-winner for Al Gore's
Democrats. But in times of relative prosperity,
presidential campaigns have historically focused on
peripheral issues and it is unclear how important the
economy will prove to be in this year's election. In the
high-tech sector there has been some recent activity, and
both Bush and Gore have made manifesto pledges to offer
tax breaks for internet companies. Beyond this however,
most political analysts predict that (unless there is
something of an economic collapse) America's economy will
stay out of the headlines for the forseeable future.
Taxation
and social security
In
the early stages of his campaign, Mr Bush paid lip service
to traditional Republican values
by promising not to introduce new taxes during his
presidency
, and offering to replace the five-tier income tax
structure with four lower rates. This move is central to
the "compassionate conservatism" Bush has based
his campaign on because it is designed
to mostly benefit those with lower incomes
. Importantly, this has helped widen Bush's appeal beyond
traditional party support, whereas Gore's policy - that
tax cuts should be limited, with any surplus used to
reduce the national debt and prop up public services - has
only appealed to Democrat-leaning voters. As the election
battle entered its final stages, Bush has moved further on
the offensive over taxation, claiming that his opponent
will be the "biggest spender" in the history of
politics. Scaremongering maybe, but a reasonably reliable
way of turning the instictively right-wing American
electorate against his opponent. In another vein, whatever
both candidates are saying, an overhaul of the nation's
social security system (which provides pensions) will be
needed when the present "baby boom" generation
reaches retirement. With millions of extra pensioners,
analysts say that the president of the day will either
have to increase taxes or raise the retirement age to keep
his government from bankruptcy. Neither measure will be
particularly popular with voters, so this (rather
important) issue has, mysteriously, been more-or-less
sidelined throughout.
International
affairs
Mr
Clinton's record on arms proliferation has been patchy and
Republicans are sure to exploit the fact that
India
and
Pakistan
both detonated nuclear bombs during his administration.
The Republicans will also remind voters that
American nuclear secrets were last year stolen by China
in one of the most damaging leaks since the Cold War.
These events all occurred while Mr Gore was serving as
vice president, and Republicans will attempt to portray
him as a naive statesman who will struggle to represent
America on the international stage. However, their
candidate is hardly the man to preach about foreign
affairs: Mr Bush was famously,
unable to name the leaders of four foreign countries
during a television interview
and has also expressed concern for the "Grecians",
"Kosovians" and "East Timorians". More
recently, Bush announced that he
would pull US troops out of the Balkans
. This might cause a fundamental rethink of NATO, but it
would also save America's public purse many billions of
dollars each year. However, nobody wins elections - least
of all American ones - by appearing to be soft on foreign
affairs, so it remains to be seen if Bush's latest
initative will prove to be a vote-winner.
Health
Never
as much of an issue in the US elections, principally
because the country's tradition of private health care
makes it is less of a government priority. This said, many
Democratic Party supporters would like to see some sort of
health reform, and Mr Clinton has recently called for
increased government spending on the sector. Mr Gore could
well win votes on this issue, but he would be playing a
dangerous game: the US voting public are generally
reluctant to endorse regulations that result in increased
taxation. So although Texas, where Mr Bush is state
governor, has the union's largest number of women without
any form of health insurance, Mr Gore has so far been
reluctant to make health a key election issue.
Gun
control
America
has a famously relaxed attitude towards firearm ownership,
but after a series of shootings at schools there are signs
that the tide is beginning to turn against the country's
powerful gun lobby. In May
more than 100,000 mothers marched through central
Washington
in support of increased controls, and anti-gun campaigners
are expected to make firearm law a key issue in the
forthcoming election. Interestingly, Mr Clinton
tried to toughen gun laws last year
, but his initiative was vetoed by Republican leaders in
congress, whose party has received considerable support
from the National Rifle Association. Although the American
population is divided over how best to deal with gun
deaths, the issue remains
a potential vote-winner for Mr Gore
particularly amongst women, who are in favour of increased
controls by a proportion of around three to one.
Enviroment
Mr
Gore can lay claim to being an expert on the environment,
having recently written a book on the subject, and sees it
as a crucial vote winner in the fight for America's female
vote. He has previously spoken about the importance of
creating eco-friendly federal purchasing policies and, as
one of his first priorities in office, will try to secure
the participation of India in
the Kyoto project to combat global warming
. Mr Bush is thought to be vulnerable here because of the
record of his state: Texas was recently declared the most
polluted in the union, thanks mostly to its economic
reliance on the oil trade. In addition, Mr Bush is an
active opponent of the Kyoto agreement, saying that it is
based on "social fads" rather than sound
science, and will harm US business. Mr Bush may well have
a point, but he is alienating a significant section of the
electorate on this and Mr Gore will hope that America's
growing green lobby will vote in his favour on polling day.
Education
Mr
Bush made education a top priority while governor of
Texas, and the issue is one of the few areas on which he
is prepared to make concrete policy announcements. He hit
the headlines last year after
promising to replicate parts of the Tory education policy
by stripping failing schools of their funds and
redistributing the money to parents, who could either pay
for tutors or transfer their children to better schools.
In a split that has seen battle lines drawn along
traditional party-political lines, Mr Gore immediately
attacked Mr Bush's proposals (saying they will lead to the
closure of hundreds of state schools) and adopted a
broadly left-wing agenda, opposed to cutting taxes and in
favour of increasing spending on education. At this stage
it is not clear which policy will appeal to crucial
floating voters amongst the US electorate, but
historically the education issue is essential for
mobilising each party's core vote, and both candidates are
fighting to claim this battleground as their own.
Capital
punishment
The
issue generated heated debate after George Bush, in his
capacity as Governor of Texas, rejected calls for the
pardon of Gary Graham, the convicted murderer
who was executed by lethal injection in June
. Opponents of the death penalty have rounded on Mr Bush,
who has overseen the execution of 137 prisoners during his
six years as state governor. This figure is far higher
than that of any previous incumbent, and could be seen as
being at odds with the "compassionate conservatism"
he otherwise preaches. With public support for the death
penalty
falling from around 80 to 66 per cent in recent years
, Mr Gore has argued for a "third way" approach
to the issue: saying that death penalty convictions should
be re-examined thoroughly if there were doubts, but
supporting execution in principle. With this tactic, he
hopes to draw votes from the growing proportion of
Americans who are uneasy with the death penalty, whilst
avoiding any accusation of being soft on crime.
Character
Difficult
to judge. Mr Clinton's legacy has left the electorate
looking for a squeaky clean candidate to restore some
dignity to the office of president, but neither of the
front-runners really fits the bill:
claims persist about Mr Bush's apparently wild youth
, while Mr Gore was Mr Clinton's right hand man throughout
the Monica Lewinsky scandal
, and is facing charges of illegal fund-raising tactics
during the 1996 election. A more important battleground
may lie in the candidates' respective performances on
America's television screens. On a superficial level, Mr
Bush's personable manner leaves him streets ahead of the
uninspiring Mr Gore. However, Mr Bush has previously been
criticised for political superficiality and certainly has
a propensity to make gaffes under pressure. He has already
tripped up on several occasions, but thus far Mr Gore has
failed to exploit his undoubted intellectual superiority.
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